CSzem's Corner

(BOD - Miranda Kerr)

(Last week's record: 8-5. Ladies and gentlemen, CSzem is not completely useless)

As Tewks has no doubt informed you in the intro to this write-up, my initial run at making picks in a public forum went surprisingly well. Anything above a .500 record is an achievement (just ask the Toronto Blue Jays, Tewks….), and being a couple games over is that much better. If I was a smart gambler, and just bet each individual game while taking my own advice, last weekend would have been profitable. But that would be far too logical.

On to this week’s picks.

Colts (-7) v. Bengals

The Bengals are really in disarray, despite nearly pulling off a monumental comeback on Monday night (no team in history had ever come back from 20 points down against the Steelers – seriously – and the Bengals almost did it in the 4th quarter on Monday night). The Colts need to step on the gas, and should get this done.

Texans (+1) @ Jags

This is the first of a huge number of games with a spread of 1, which is typically very rare. This means there’s a lot of money to be made as long as you can pick winners. Crap, that doesn’t bode well.

Allow me a slight digression here for the purposes of educating fledgling gamblers out there. In picking these games, it’s important to keep in mind the process that goes into setting these lines. First off, the most common misconception about Vegas lines is that people think the lines are intended to reflect what Vegas considers to be “the most likely outcome”. Not true. Vegas’ goal in setting a line is to pick a line that will generate equal amounts of action on either side. So they’re trying to read the public more than the teams. This is why you often pay a bit of a “tax” on teams that the public typically likes to support (like the Pats, Cowboys, Colts, etc.).

The OTHER important note (and the reason I brought this up now) is that Vegas typically works in a 3 point advantage for the home team. What that means is that (for the game above) the oddsmakers actually think that Houston is 2 points better than Jacksonville. If the game was in Houston, it would (likely) be Houston -5. So that’s why I’m taking the Texans. Vegas and I both think they’re the better team.

(We’ll try to keep it brief now….)

Dolphins (+1) v. Titans

Please ignore that entire diatribe as I now go directly against what I just discussed.

Bears (+1) v. Vikings

Why? Why why why? Why do people still think the Vikings are good? They needed a miracle fourth quarter just to beat the Cardinals (a terrible road team) at the Metrodome. And now I’m supposed to believe they’re going into Soldier Field and winning against a team with a much better record?

Lions (+2.5) @ Bills

Why am I talking myself into the Lions as a bit of a sleeper team? Ndamukong Suh (eat that spell check) is an absolute beast and I think will make life miserable for Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Browns (+3) v. Jets

Is Cleveland good? They might be, right? They just won in New Orleans and then manhandled New England. The Jets struggled to win on the road at Detroit, who probably isn’t as good as this frisky Browns team. Jets may win, but not by a lot.

Bucs (-6.5) v. Panthers

One of the best calls I made last week was saying that the Josh Freeman-led Bucs weren’t getting enough respect in Atlanta, and that the line should have been 6.5 or 7 (they lost by 6 when they failed to convert a 4th down from the 1 at the end of the game). Carolina is AWFUL. They might be worse than Dallas.

Chiefs (-1) @ Broncos

Looks like one of the easiest games on the board to me so you can probably mark down the Broncos for a win.

Rams (+6) @ Niners

This week’s version of the “How the hell are they laying 6 points to ANYONE” game. Rams are flat out better than SF. This line is crazy to me.

Cardinals (-3) v. Seahawks

These teams both suck. But they both also win games at home and get smoked on the road.

Giants (-13.5) v. Cowboys

I was legitimately excited when I saw that this line was less than 2 TDs. I think there’s money to be made here.

Pats (+4.5) @ Steelers

Two good teams, think it comes down to a FG or late TD.

Eagles (-3) @ Redskins

The Eagles might be really good, the Redskins are not.

Pretty sure I will have lost most of you (most likely Tewks, included) when I went on my little gambling-education rant. But it’s CSzem’s Corner, and that means I can do what I want. Plus, I guarantee none of you were up at 2:30, 3:10, 3:30, and 4:00 (or if you were, it was more pleasant than it was for me).