There’s an excellent chance that those of us here at Talkin’ with Tewks will have some sort of MLB preview on next week’s podcast and we will be forced to listen to the incoherent ramblings of Gretzpo as he somehow predicts another American League East title for the Toronto Blue Jays, while having zero knowledge of the rest of the league.
I figured I would use today’s column as a preamble to that conversation and dispense some realistic thoughts on the Jays’ 2011 chances before fanciful notions of World Series parades sidetrack any further discussions next week.
The catalyst for today’s column was news from Dunedin that Brandon Morrow would be placed on the disabled list retroactive to March 22, which means he is going to miss at least the first start of the season (more if there are any setbacks between now and then).
Obviously, I don’t think Morrow spending a short stint on the DL will lead to the ruination of Toronto’s season. However, a telling stat that most media types are quoting are Morrow’s innings pitched last year and his projected total for this season. He threw around 146 last season before being shut down at the beginning of September.
It was a cautionary move as the Jays brass doesn’t want to increase their young pitchers’ workloads by too much from season to season. By all accounts, Morrow’s ceiling for 2011 is approximately 180 innings. Now, I don’t know if the plan was to just let him go this season and shut him down whenever he his that mark or if they were going to have him skip a start here and there so he can stretch his workload to the end of September.
Here’s where I have a problem. Toronto has Morrow pegged as their number two starter this season. Can someone please tell on what playoff team does the number two guy only throw 180 innings in a season?
To field a team for the playoffs, you at least need your top two guys to throw over 200 innings. They are your workhorses, your losing streak stoppers. They are the guys the rest of the team depends on during the dog days of August. What kind of message will this send to the 2011 Blue Jays when Morrow is only allowed to go five innings against the Yankees on August 20?
I believe Ricky Romero will be allowed to throw 200 innings, but I guarantee Brett Cecil, Kyle Drabek and Jesse Litsch (coming off an injury) will not be allowed anywhere near that total.
Who’s going to step up and plug that innings gap? Jojo Reyes? The motley crue of old relievers—two of whom are currently not able to throw from the mound—or a committee of guys from Las Vegas?
I predict a good four months from the Jays, but then the wheels will fall off in August and September when Octavio Dotel has to make an emergency start at Fenway because the rotation’s young arms can’t handle the strain.
For the record, I agree with Jays management to bring these young arms along slowly, but I think fans everywhere predicting a 90 plus win season need to temper their expectations considerably.
I’m looking at you, Gretzpo.
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