BOD - Jamie Lynn Sigler
Gretzpo:
Apparently, our banter was witty enough to warrant another weekly column ... or Tewks is slowly phasing himself out... probably a combination of the two...
Also, let's try and remember to include a Babe of The Day this time...
Let's start things off with 2 topical, Canadian content questions:
1) Thoughts on Milos Raonic and his first ATP victory? And Canada's first men's singles victory since 1995? But, really, do faux Canadian victories (I'm looking at you, Greg Rusedski), count?
2) Toronto Blue Jays pitchers and catchers report today. What are your predictions for what the 5 starters will look like, and throw out some predictions on what kind of year you think each will have.
Also, let's try and remember to include a Babe of The Day this time...
Let's start things off with 2 topical, Canadian content questions:
1) Thoughts on Milos Raonic and his first ATP victory? And Canada's first men's singles victory since 1995? But, really, do faux Canadian victories (I'm looking at you, Greg Rusedski), count?
2) Toronto Blue Jays pitchers and catchers report today. What are your predictions for what the 5 starters will look like, and throw out some predictions on what kind of year you think each will have.
CSzem:
I put the lack of BOD squarely on your shoulders. I think it’s evident that in this set-up, I’m the one bringing the insight and humour, and you’re the one bringing…..the password that lets us post columns on Tewks’ blog.
Very nice of you to leave the “Another game for Milos!” joke wide open for me. I don’t know if an athlete has ever provided an easier setup for a joke we’ve been using for years (even totally out of context). Call me crazy, but I am completely pumped for the Milos Raonic-era. He’s got all the requisite shots that you need to be successful in the men’s game (big serve, big forehand), and has already had some success on the big stage. He’s only 20, so he’s got a lot of prime years ahead of him.
Don’t get me started on Greg Rusedski. What a jackass. What possible benefit was there for him to be an English citizen rather than Canadian? It’s not like Brett Hull becoming an American for spite (“You already said spite….”). There really is no clear benefit. Davis Cup? Is England even any better than Canada? I told you not to get me started.
#1: Ricky Romero – 16-8, 216.1 IP, 3.48 ERA, 184 K’s. Continued development, nothing but good things to say about him.
#2: Brandon Morrow – 13-5, 184.2 IP, 4.02 ERA, 203 K’s. Dominant stuff, but lends itself to inconsistency, hence the 4+ ERA.
#3: Brett Cecil – 12-10, 191.0 IP, 4.12 ERA, 147 K’s. I expect slight regression. His “peripheral” numbers don’t support the number of wins he had last year.
#4: Kyle Drabek – 10-11, 168.0 IP, 3.81 ERA, 151 K’s. I think most Jays’ fans would be happy with that stat-line for Drabek. Obviously I expect him to show flashes of brilliance along the way.
#5: Mark Rzepczynski – 8-12, 149.2 IP, 4.45 ERA, 107 K’s. Totally spelled that right without even looking it up.
You, no doubt, have Romero and Morrow battling it out for the Cy Young with matching 20-4 records, sub 3.00 ERA’s, and 220 K’s apiece…?
I have run a gamut of emotions on the Jays upcoming season. Last year, I was convinced 2011 was going to be great, then as the offseason started on I started to think about how much better Boston will be, and the loaded Orioles lineup, and I got depressed. Then the Wells deal happened and convinced me AA is a super-genius so obviously the team will be great. Then I realized that the starting OF is Snider, Davis, Rivera, which sounds more like a Personal Injury Law Firm in Southern California. I’m back to expecting a disappointing year.
Gretzpo:
You know who must be boiling right now? Canadian Olympic gold medalist and multi-tournament doubles champion, Daniel Nestor.
No one cares about doubles... why do you think that is?
My hypothesis is that tennis just works so well as a singles sport ... when you screw up, you've got no one to blame but yourself. And viewers like that relationship. Like in our most recent tennis match I lost 18 POINTS IN A ROW. I was a mess. But still managed to emerge as the victor. How does that relate to anything? I'm not sure it does... but I like bringing up that win as much as I can. Also, it just looks too crowded out there... but rarely does anyone ever get hammered with a ball. More bloody noses and overhand smash related concussions is what that sport needs... then I might tune in...
#1 Ricky Romero: 18-6, 3.30 ERA, 191Ks, 225 IP ... LL Cool Jay's breakout year. Cy Young contention.
#2 Brandon Morrow: 19-7, 3.15 ERA, 240Ks, 215 IP ... Cy Young contention. Hopefully they don't cap his innings.
#3 Brett Cecil: 15-10, 3.95 ERA, 150Ks, 200 IP ... Wears goggles like Kevin Gregg... thankfully, that's where the similarities end.
#4 Kyle Drabek: 12-12, 4.25 ERA, 115Ks, 165 IP ... Sometimes I still call him "Doug"
#5 Zach Stewart: 8-12, 4.50 ERA, 105Ks, 150 IP ... I expect him to have a Brandon Morrow type year - great stuff, very up and down. Will show flashes of brilliance, but won't make a leap until next year.
Okay... that's 72 wins out of our starters. You've got them pegged for 59 wins.
After reviewing my #s I'd say I'm a tad optimistic. Stat lines like that point to an AL East title.
Baltimore's still going to suck this year. They're trying to build a team like JP Ricciardi - and we know how well that plays out in the AL East. Are they going to suck so bad we'll be able to beat them 15 times in a row... probably not. But I don't see > .500 ball from them. I also see steps back from T-Bay and the Yanks. Also, despite their big off season acquisitions on offense, I'm not sold on the BoSox starting staff. Dice-K, Beckett and Lackey aren't sure things.
Put all those things together, and factor in that John Farrell sounds like the greatest manager of all time, and all I'm saying is that the Jays will be able to stay in contention a little bit longer this year. Maybe even some meaningful September baseball.
CSzem:
I think you’re right about why doubles doesn’t do well in tennis, but you’re failing to point out the most obvious comparison: golf. In golf, people eat up the team competitions (Ryder Cup, obviously, but even look at the attention Bill Murray got last week at Pebble). The reason is that the team events are rare. And they (usually) team up the best players. Tennis doubles just gets lost in the mix, since it seems like the undercard at every event.
There’s not a doubt in my mind that the only reason you brought that up was to talk about your victory. I’d remind the readers that we both won a set, and then I was forced to retire….except I’m not sure that’s better than just having lost.
Can you explain for me how Ricky Romero is going to contend for a Cy Young with fewer wins, a higher ERA, and 50 fewer K’s than Brandon Morrow? Who would vote for Romero ahead of Morrow in that scenario? Or do you have them finishing first and second a la Clemens and Hentgen? (Also, I’m not sure Brandon Morrow’s own mother is projecting that strong of a year for him)
I love talking about baseball with you, because logic is just completely removed from the equation. Any factor that you can spin to make it seem more likely that the Jays will compete for the playoffs is pretty much your viewpoint.
I keep waiting for you to call Rajai Davis a “modern day Rickey Henderson”, or tell me that the Dotel/Rauch/Francisco triumvirate is going to be “like Duane Ward and Tom Henke all over again”.
Gretzpo:
Haha... Corey Patterson is the next Devon White... I can't believe they managed to snag him on a minor league deal. (That one was a joke).
... breaking news... (well... for me at least). Jays sign Scott Podsednik to minor league deal with Spring Training invite. More speed and another lefty bat. Not a bad depth move ... and one that predicates the Jays evolution into a balanced offence, rather than relying strictly on the long ball.
One Jay I think is going to have a monster year is Travis Snider - no longer held back by Cito's hatred of all things young, Snider's going to flourish this season. Give the kid 600AB, and hope for a .285 average, 35 HR and 100 RBIs.
Any take on the JoBau situation? With the financial freedom we've been afforded by getting out of the Wells contract I don't mind a 3-4 year contract at $10-$12 million per. It's a win for the Jays as they can get him at a pretty good price that won't cripple them financially if his production goes south, and it's a win for JoBau because he's getting guaranteed money after what could be an outlier season. AND it's a win for Anthopolous because he negotiated the settlement. Win / Win / Win.
Bit of a shakeup in the Canadian sports media over the last couple days ... and both I consider to be great moves:
IN is Dan Shulman working for TSN. The greatest play by play man in the history of the world. Seriously... I think a notable publication has him as the best of the decade. But Sportsnet carries all the baseball... which is what I enjoy hearing him call the most. To think as Jays fans we were treated to Dan Shulman and Buck Martinez in the same booth in the past... if only that era's team could match the performance of it's broadcasters...
OUT is Sam Cosentino. Which makes sense - when you're at the Jays game there are already a dozen fat guys stating the obvious, did we really need one in a suit with a microphone?
OUT is Rance Mulliniks. Which also makes sense. Much too long winded to be a colour guy - Pat Tabler's the best choice here. And even with Buck Martinez fisting the competition, I kind of miss Rod Black.
CSzem:
You have officially jumped the shark regarding this discussion. Do you know how many players in all of baseball did what you just suggested Snider could do? FOUR! Do you know how many OF'ers? NONE! The four names are Pujols, Votto, Miguel Cabrera, and (oddly enough) Paul Konerko. If you lower the HR threshold to 30, the only names you add are Adrian Gonzalez, Dan Uggla, Carlos Gonzalez, and Josh Hamilton. Yeah, Travis Snider is ready to step into that group. You noted that you were joking after the Patterson/Devo comparison, so maybe I'll assume you just left that part out when talking about Snider.
I'm going straight-up "curmudgeon" for this whole response (I got off to a good start, so why stop now?). Who OK's "JoBau" as an acceptable nickname? When did we get so uncreative that a player's nicknames automatically default to this (and yes, I'm aware that I go by "CSzem" in this space)...? I blame Chris Webber. But regardless, Bautista deserves a new nickname.
Obviously everything you said about the contract is now moot, so we can talk in definitive terms. Frankly, I'm terrified of this contract. I have trouble picturing Jose Bautista worth MORE than $13MM per year at any point, meaning that there's no scenario where this deal is a bargain. To be worth that much, he'd have to put up Travis Snider-like numbers year in and year out. So that means that all the risk in the deal is for the team. I've heard people say that Bautista's "floor" is about 22 HRs, 90 RBI, and a .260 average....to which I respond "Actually his floor is a 12 HR journeyman who can't find a position or team". There's absolutely a chance that he's worth $13MM per year and this is a fair market deal....but there's also a chance this deal blows up (and this is coming from someone that defended the Vernon Wells contract when it was signed).
Gretzpo:
This last part wasn't in the e-mail banter ... but I figure since I get to post the column I'll always get the last word. I once saw Travis Snider hit a one handed home run to straightaway center field, at the Rogers Centre. A talent like that, playing every day, and staying healthy is going to put it all together this year. The guy's only 23 years old, so he should be cut a lot of slack about not living up to expectations so far ... this is the year he breaks out.
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