CSzem is going to step up to the plate and provide us with a weekly NFL picks column to be posted on Fridays. He's a real mensch. Also, the other website I have been working on will be unleashed on Wednesday morning with two articles. I will post the site adress in Tuesday's podcast column.
As this is my initial foray into the realm of a public picks column, I feel the need to start with the mother of all caveats. So here it is: I am TERRIBLE at picking NFL games. Absolutely awful. I am so bad that in my "Pick'Em" pool, I buried myself so badly and so far down in the standings, that three weeks ago I handed the picking duties off to Mrs. CSzem (a move which has dramatically improved my performance in the pool) - and that pool is simply trying to pick winners, without even taking the spread into account. So....yeah....this might not go all that well.
But as has been evident through multiple podcast ambushes, and a Guest Column written from the hospital a day after OSzem was born, Tewks cares far more about the entertainment of you the reader than he does about potentially embarrassing me in a public forum (the fact that I keep coming back for more is a whole other discussion).
So here goes, these picks come with the official warning that if you follow them too closely, you are likely jeopardizing your ability to:
A) Feed your family
B) Pay your rent or mortgage
C) Avoid having your thumbs broken
Buffalo (+2.5) v. Chicago
After that build up, might as well start these picks with the lunacy of picking the worst team in the league - a team that hasn't won a game yet this year, no less. The Bills have been knocking on the door, and this has great potential to be a really weird game (being played at Rogers Centre). Plus, I'll be in attendance and want to bet on the "home" team.
San Diego (-3) @ Houston
Feels like the Chargers have started their annual late season surge. They cost me money last week by covering when I thought they wouldn't, so it stands to reason that this week they'll cost me money by NOT covering when I think they will.....
Carolina (+6.5) v. New Orleans
This weekend has a bunch of "home dogs" (that means the road team is favoured, Tewks), and I think it's going to turn out to be one of those days where people can’t figure out what’s going on when a bunch of bad teams beat good teams (or at least keep games close).
Arizona (+8) @ Minnesota
Can someone please explain to me how the Vikings are laying 8 points to ANYONE? I know the Cardinals are bad on the road, but the Vikings are an absolute mess.
Tampa Bay (+9) @ Atlanta
Line should be 6.5 or 7. Tampa’s a good team, and I am 100% buying on Josh Freeman. The oddsmakers are giving Atlanta lots of love here, and while they absolutely should win this game, I think it stays in single digits.
NY Jets (-4) @ Detroit
The Lions are coming off a breakthrough win against the Redskins. The Jets are coming off seemingly a mental breakdown against the Packers. If you don’t think that’s going to completely reverse course, you haven’t been paying attention. LOVE the Jets here.
Baltimore (-5) v. Miami
Miami has let to lose a road game (and yet to win a home game), which is ridiculous, and won’t continue in the NFL. “Football Outsiders” (which is a football statistics website that geeks and gambling addicts flock to) says that they won’t win more than one more game on the road. This won’t be that one.
New England (-4.5) @ Cleveland
This is the best team in the league (fact, not my opinion) against the Cleveland F’ing Browns. And they’re only laying 4.5?? I feel like I’m taking crazy pills.
Seattle (OFF) v. NY Giants
This line is OFF, presumably because Charlie “J.C.” Whitehurst is likely to be starting for the Seahawks. Whatever the line comes in at, I like Seattle (I realize how ridiculous that is). The Giants are due for a letdown and traveling all the way across the country to play in one of the NFL’s toughest stadiums is as good a spot as any.
Oakland (-2.5) v. Kansas City
If you had told me before the season that this would be a huge matchup with significant playoff implications, I would have assumed you spent a little too much time hanging out with Ron Washington. But here we are. I actually think both of these teams are good, as ridiculous as that sounds.
Indy (+3) @ Philadelphia
I just don’t see Peyton Manning losing this game by more than a FG. I actually think they should win this game. The NFC is a disaster, so I’m taking the AFC in pretty much any matchups possible. (Actually, looking back, I’ve done that in every inter-conference game….so at least I’m consistent)
Green Bay (-7.5) v. Dallas
They could probably put a “1” at the start of this line and I’d still take the Packers. In all honesty, it’s ridiculous the respect that the Cowboys keep getting. Last week, they were laying 6.5 points, and this week, if they were any other awful 1-6 team coming into Lambeau, they’d be getting 13.5.
Pittsburgh (-5) @ Cincinnati
In a perfect world, I’d finish this column with something exceptionally witty or clever. But in a perfect world, I wouldn’t have to sit through Steelers/Bengals in Prime Time on MNF.
Tune in next week to see how I did, and for more surefire winners (aka the opposite of what I pick).
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