There’s an excellent chance that those of us here at Talkin’ with Tewks will have some sort of MLB preview on next week’s podcast and we will be forced to listen to the incoherent ramblings of Gretzpo as he somehow predicts another American League East title for the Toronto Blue Jays, while having zero knowledge of the rest of the league.
I figured I would use today’s column as a preamble to that conversation and dispense some realistic thoughts on the Jays’ 2011 chances before fanciful notions of World Series parades sidetrack any further discussions next week.
The catalyst for today’s column was news from Dunedin that Brandon Morrow would be placed on the disabled list retroactive to March 22, which means he is going to miss at least the first start of the season (more if there are any setbacks between now and then).
Obviously, I don’t think Morrow spending a short stint on the DL will lead to the ruination of Toronto’s season. However, a telling stat that most media types are quoting are Morrow’s innings pitched last year and his projected total for this season. He threw around 146 last season before being shut down at the beginning of September.
It was a cautionary move as the Jays brass doesn’t want to increase their young pitchers’ workloads by too much from season to season. By all accounts, Morrow’s ceiling for 2011 is approximately 180 innings. Now, I don’t know if the plan was to just let him go this season and shut him down whenever he his that mark or if they were going to have him skip a start here and there so he can stretch his workload to the end of September.
Here’s where I have a problem. Toronto has Morrow pegged as their number two starter this season. Can someone please tell on what playoff team does the number two guy only throw 180 innings in a season?
To field a team for the playoffs, you at least need your top two guys to throw over 200 innings. They are your workhorses, your losing streak stoppers. They are the guys the rest of the team depends on during the dog days of August. What kind of message will this send to the 2011 Blue Jays when Morrow is only allowed to go five innings against the Yankees on August 20?
I believe Ricky Romero will be allowed to throw 200 innings, but I guarantee Brett Cecil, Kyle Drabek and Jesse Litsch (coming off an injury) will not be allowed anywhere near that total.
Who’s going to step up and plug that innings gap? Jojo Reyes? The motley crue of old relievers—two of whom are currently not able to throw from the mound—or a committee of guys from Las Vegas?
I predict a good four months from the Jays, but then the wheels will fall off in August and September when Octavio Dotel has to make an emergency start at Fenway because the rotation’s young arms can’t handle the strain.
For the record, I agree with Jays management to bring these young arms along slowly, but I think fans everywhere predicting a 90 plus win season need to temper their expectations considerably.
I’m looking at you, Gretzpo.
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2 comments:
You're an idiot.
In his three previous seasons before pitching 146 innings with Toronto, he averaged 65 innings as a reliever in Seattle. The Mariners really jerked him around, moving him from the bullpen to spot starting in the rotation.
Including the minors, Jesse Litsch pitched 158 innings in 2006, 187 innings in 2007 and 176 innings in 2008. Even though both his 2009 and 2010 were shortened by injury, he's proven his arm can handle the rigours of a full season of being in the rotation.
Kyle Drabek pitched 158 innings while with the Phillies organization in 2009, and pitched a combined 179 innings between AA New Hampshire and the Jays last season.
If the Jays are anywhere near the playoffs come August, there won't be an innings cap on Litsch, Drabek or Cecil (who threw 185 innings last year) ... each of them have experience pitching north of 175-185 innings ... you're saying they wouldn't get stretched out an extra 15-25 innings if it meant a better shot at the playoffs?
As for Morrow, I'm surprised someone who talks about the complexity of pitching and how unnatural the pitching motion is, can suggest a guy can go from 65 IP for the majority of his career to 200+ IP without at least a couple of intermediary seasons.
You consistently bash my optimism, but in all seriousness, the Jays will not be contenders in 2011. If holding back Brandon Morrow to 180 innings rather than 205 innings reduces his exposure to long term injury, it's the right move.
An extra 15-25 innings to get to 200 for the other 4 starters is one thing, but to jump from 146 IP to over 200 is just too much of a jump for Morrow.
LMAO Gretzpo you could have stopped at the first sentence and it would have covered everything.
AG
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