Tewks asked me to write a column for the start of the NCAA tournament, with some picks. Well, I shouldn’t say he asked me, because I pretty much volunteered. Such a great time of year shouldn’t go by without my voice being heard on the subject. As I recall, I embarrassed myself rather thoroughly last year during the Tournament (although I did pick Duke to win it all…..but that’s just because I’m a huge homer), so why not do it again.
I initially set out to do a full on picks column, but with 16 games slated for both today and tomorrow, I have neither the time nor the inclination to run down each of them individually. So let’s take a different run at this, as I’ll give my “upsets to watch for” and my picks to win each of the four regions.
EAST
Ohio St is the prohibitive favourite and are the #1 overall seed for the tournament. And with good reason. If you’re an NBA fan, and don’t typically watch college ball, get to know Jared Sullinger. He’s coming to an NBA court near you starting in the fall.
A popular upset pick in this region seems to be Indiana St., better known as “where Larry Bird went to school” (since they haven’t been good since then), but I think they’re in over their head against Syracuse. Everyone from the Big East (which includes the ‘Cuse) has basically been in an all out battle royal all season. They’re either tournament tested and will all be ready….or they’ve beaten each other up so badly that they’ve got nothing left.
So my upset pick is (ironically) a team that’s already won a game in this year’s tournament (that is, if you include the lame “play-in” games). Clemson (#12 seed) over West Virginia (#5 seed). Clemson is underseeded, and probably deserve a seed in the #7-#10 range.
Region Winner: Ohio St. Hate going with the “chalk” pick, but they’re just a better team than anyone else in this region. Kentucky and UNC are very dangerous, and loaded with talent, but their inexperience will bite them in the ass and the Buckeyes will move on.
WEST
You can probably guess where my pick is going in this one, so let’s talk about the upset.
A few interesting possibilities: One that a lot of people are talking about is Oakland University over Texas. Really interesting game, since I could legitimately see Texas losing, but I could also make an argument that they’ve got a shot to win the National Championship. They’ve shown, at various points in the year, an ability to beat ANYONE. I want no part of them for Duke in the Sweet 16, so I’m hoping Oakland takes them out.
Also watch out for UConn to take a tumble early. Everyone is all over this team after their miracle run in the Big East Tournament (5 wins in 5 days, never been done before), but I’m saying they shot their wad a tad early (and now they’ll have a big mess on their hands). This is a team, after all, that finished 9th in their conference in regular season play.
Region Winner: Duke
SOUTHWEST
An interesting region to me, because it has three teams that (as recently as 10 days ago) all had a legitimate shot at being a #1 seed in the tournament. Purdue stumbled with two bad losses and cost themselves, and then Notre Dame (which was looking like arguably the best team in the country) blew a 15+ point lead in the Big East semi. Throw in a team like Louisville (the team that beat Notre Dame in said game), and Georgetown (which I’ll get to in a second), and you’ve got a region that could be won by a number of different really good teams.
Upset alert: Everyone’s on the same one, and I can’t really argue. Richmond over Vanderbilt. Just seems like a pretty even matchup and a really tough draw for Vanderbilt as a #5 seed. Should be a great game.
The other one that’s very interesting for me is VCU v. Georgetown. When healthy, Georgetown has the ability to play with anyone in the country. But their best player (Chris Wright) has had trouble staying on the court. If he plays, they could win the region; if he doesn’t, they very likely go down first round.
Region Winner: Purdue. No respect as a #3 seed, when they were looking like a #1 very recently. I think someone else will do their dirty work and take out Notre Dame (I’m looking at you Florida State), leaving their path to the Elite 8 clear, and then they match up reasonably well with Kansas.
SOUTHEAST
A tough, tough region to peg, and here’s why: Pittsburgh is, far and away, the best team here. It’s really not even close. They’ve been absolutely gifted a path to the Final Four. But here’s where it gets tricky. For all of the regular season success Pitt has had over the last decade, they are tournament chokers, and consistently flame out in March. If they’re ever going to get over the hump, now should be the time, but I’m not so sure they’ve got it in them.
Upset Alert: Belmont over Wisconsin. I’m honestly not even sure this is an upset. Using some more “advanced” rankings, Belmont rates as high as the 15th best team in the country, yet somehow they’re a #13 seed here, which just goes to show you how terrible a job the committee does at seeding these teams. Wisconsin also just lost their last game 36-33 (seriously, that was the score for the whole game).
Region Winner: Pittsburgh. Get ready for chaos to happen in this region. Much like the Southwest, there are a tonne of teams that could come out of this region. Unlike the Southwest, it’s not because they’re all good, it’s because it’s a weak region. With that said, if Pitt plays to their abilities, they should breeze through here.
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