(This will be the last entry until Tuesday, February 15 as Talkin' with Tewks will be on hiatus all of next week because I will be attending a baseball tryout camp in Fort Myers, Florida. I Dream of Long Bus Rides will be updated daily next week with news from the tryout. Follow along here.)
So here we go, this is a big one. After my mediocre run through the first two weeks of the playoffs, everything came crashing to a halt in the Conference Championships two weeks ago. I went 0-2, dropping my record to a dismal 4-6 for the playoffs. Now, all I can hope for is a Super Bowl win, so I can finish a “not-so-horrible” 5-6. A loss here would drop me to 4-7, and all my credibility would be shot. Fortunately, I don’t think I was starting out with that much credibility to begin with.
The other good news is that a win in this one would actually result in me personally finishing “ahead” for the playoffs, since let’s just say that the Super Bowl might be slightly more heavily weighted from a gambling perspective. For reference sake, the Super Bowl is more like two semesters worth of books for little O-Szem as opposed to just one.
The other, other, good news is that Super Bowl week means props, props, and more props. This year we can bet on the length of Christina Aguilera’s rendition of the Star Spangled Banner (over/under is 1 minute, 54 seconds), what colour her hair will be, what Fergie will be wearing at halftime (10:1 odds to bet that she’ll be wearing a thong/bikini bottom….now there’s a bet I’d love to win), the weight of the Super Bowl MVP (over/under is 226.5 lbs), or even crazy things like who will actually win the game!
It’s a veritable smorgasbord of betting, and (as we all agreed at my recent GA meeting) it really is the best day of the year.
So what do I recommend (given my recent track record, you can read this section and then RUN the other way)…..?
Tails. That’s right, you can bet on the coin flip. And I don’t know if you’ve heard, but this bet never fails.
One bet I love is (if you think the Packers are going to win the game) taking Aaron Rodgers to be the MVP. Taking the Packers to win straight up is an expensive proposition, since they’re favoured by 3. But taking Rodgers to win MVP can net you a tidy profit (pays 1.5 to 1). Can you really envision ANYONE else winning the MVP if the Packers win this game? I can’t.
The UNDER. The game’s current total is 44. An important note about the game total in the Super Bowl is that the gambling public LOVES high scoring games, and therefore is always inclined to bet the over. Vegas knows this, and, therefore, always inflates the number just a little bit so they are more likely to take Joe Blow’s money. This game features the #1 and #2 scoring defenses in the entire league! For all the press that Rodgers and the Packers Offense garner, their Defense might be an even bigger reason why they’re here. And we know about the Steelers’ D. Add in the fact, that teams typically come into the Super Bowl a bit nervous (and therefore conservative early on), and I just don’t see this climbing past a 24-20 scoreline, which would be a push.
You may have noticed that I’ve spent as little time as possible actually dissecting this game and working towards a pick. In truth, that’s because I have absolutely no idea what’s going to happen in this game. I cannot recall a Super Bowl in recent memory where the two teams seemed SO evenly matched. We’ve had a few really good games recently, and even last year we had a mild upset. But there can’t be an “upset” in this year’s game. Despite the fact that the Packers are favoured by 3, no one in their right mind is going to be surprised if the Steelers win this thing. As a football fan, that has me extremely jacked up. Unlike a couple weeks ago, I think I would be excited for this game, and would enjoy it, even if I didn’t have a horse in the race. With that said, you’re not reading this for me to wish the two teams luck and hope they play a good, honest, game, and the best team wins. That sounds boring, and pretty lame.
This is about taking sides.
Two very interesting notes before I make a pick:
1) The average margin of victory in Super Bowl’s with a spread of 3 points or fewer is something like 15.5. What that means is that, typically, the games that we expect to be really close and hard-fought, don’t always turn out that way.
2) The Packers’ record in close games has been absolutely abysmal all year (meaning they better hope Stat #1 holds true and they win this thing easily).
Stat #2 is the interesting one for me. Either the Packers simply don’t have a killer instinct for closing the deal in close games, and Big Ben is going to march the Steelers down the field for a winning TD at the final whistle…..OR the law of averages is eventually going to kick in, and the Pack have simply been unlucky in their closer contests.
The Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (+3)
Steelers win outright, as Big Ben drives them down for the winning score with seconds to play. People of Dallas, lock up your wives/daughters/girlfriends.
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