As you have obviously noticed, I have been conspicuous by my absence in recent weeks. What's that? You didn't notice? You just kept living your life as if nothing was even remotely different? Oh.
Well, Tewks noticed. As you might have guessed, he has incessantly mocked and jeered me for shirking my responsibilities of contributing to this blog. And what's worse, the Wally Pipp references continue to cut me deep.
Fortunately, my replacement is no Iron Horse (Gretzpo....I know Lou Gehrig, and you sir, are no Lou Gehrig). So that leaves the door open for my triumphant return. "Triumphant" is, of course, a term we're using very liberally here, since this return will almost certainly be the exact opposite of triumphant come Monday morning (what the hell is the opposite of "triumphant"...??)
Sadly, until I get a computer that is fully functional at home, they'll be no podcasting for me (hopefully the new season of The Bachelor isn't too far in swing by the time that happens.....that damn Brad, how could he do that to those poor girls?), so we'll stick to the written word.
Back to the task at hand. NFL Playoff time is the Holy Grail for gamblers. Actually, we really like March Madness as well. And the NBA Playoffs. And Tuesdays. But the NFL Playoffs are really great. Let's see if I've got an 11-0 run in me (although with this challenging first slate of games, starting out 0-4 seems a distinct possibility).
New Orleans (-10.5) @ Seattle
Read a great note the other day that suggested the Saints were the first ever #5 seed to receive a first-round bye. HIYO!
I'm probably overthinking it, but this is a tricky game for me. As bad as Seattle is overall, they were still a respectable 5-3 at home, and Qwest Field is undeniably one of the toughest places to play in the league. New Orleans is travelling clear across the country, on a short week. And they've never won a road playoff game - ever - in the franchise's entire existence. Also, it's been 5 years (the 2005 Pats) since the defending Super Bowl champion won even ONE playoff game the following year.
So those things all scream to pick against New Orleans. And I absolutely would if this was even remotely close to a "normal" playoff scenario. But let's look at Seattle. All 9 of their losses (first of all, that sentence has no business being in the playoffs) were by 15+ points! So when they lose, they lose big. These teams played earlier in the year, and New Orleans won easily (back before they were even hitting their stride). There's no particular reason to think the Seahawks can hang with the Saints, other than the fact that the stadium will be loud.
The Pick: New Orleans
NY Jets @ Indianapolis (-2.5)
Just when everyone had written the Colts off for dead, they reeled off 4 straight wins to grab the division and even the #3 seed. Now they're hosting a playoff game, and could even manage to avoid the Pats until the AFC Championship game. Looking a little closer, though, 2 of those 4 games were against a Titans team that had visibly quit, 1 was against the Jags (admittedly a decent win, while they were still battling for the division....although there's a chance that NO ONE in the division was good), and the other was against the Raiders, which looks like a decent win (it was in Oakland), but apparently they only beat teams in their division.
On the other side, we've got the Jets. Losers of 3 of their last 5, limping into the playoffs. 2 of those 5 though, are relatively excusable (the demolition by the Pats, and the close loss at Chicago). The odd one is the loss at home to Miami. I'm willing to overlook that one because of the great win, in Pittsburgh.
So, despite what the records would say, based on recent form, I actually think this is relatively even. So how can we break the tie? Well, we've got Peyton Manning, at home, in primetime. Against Mark Sanchez, on the road, in a playoff game. That seems pretty clear to me.
So why the hell am I about to write this?? Just a gut call. I think the Colts are frauds, and they're not actually any good. They got in by winning a weak division. The Jets are going to hit them in the mouth, and there just aren't enough able bodies left in that locker room to cope.
The Pick: NY Jets (+2.5)
(Now we've got a problem. I've picked two road teams already. Traditionally, on WC weekend, home teams are the way to go. I've gone many years just taking all four home teams, KNOWING that I'm going to go 3-1 minimum. It just doesn't feel like the case this year. We've got the weird NFC, with the Seahawks. And we've got two WC teams in the AFC that throughout the season were - without question - better than their division-winning opponents. Weird year, will it make for a weird weekend??)
Baltimore (-3) @ Kansas City
Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh (not to be confused with his brother Jim, who has given basically every football team in America - NFL or NCAA - a collective boner over the possibility he might coach them next season) have compiled a pretty nice record on the road in the playoffs over the last few years. That sounded great until it occurred to me that a really good coach/QB tandem would have had a home playoff game at some point (which this combo has yet to do).
I think Kansas City is the perfect "home dog" that I would normally love to pick in this scenario. Doesn't it seem entirely plausible that - even if the Ravens are going to win - the Chiefs could keep this within a FG? I don't think it's out of the realm for the Chiefs to even win this game. So they seem like a solid pick here.
One problem: the Chiefs literally only do one thing well (run the football). Now, they do it basically better than anyone else, but still, it's the only thing they do well. Ray Lewis and the Ravens D (which is how they must always be addressed, by the way), while not the vaunted D they once were, are still very capable of shutting down the run. Their weakness is in the secondary. And I don't care how many stats CBS shows me about Matt Cassel's play this year, if this game is on his shoulders, I think he'll crumble.
So let's continue to buck the "home team" rules for WC weekend. Why the hell not....
The Pick: Baltimore (-3)
Green Bay @ Philadelphia (-2.5)
Ironically, now that I've picked road teams in the first three games, we get to a game where the consensus seems to be that the road team is on better form, and seems ripe for a nice run (possibly even a Super Bowl run in the wide-open NFC).
America is absolutely exceptional at collectively forgetting stuff, and I'm finding it amazing how quickly everyone's forgotten the incredible theatrics of Vick and Co. as recently as three weeks ago. All the pundits are hammering away at the fact that "they've played one good quarter" in the last month (the ridiculously spectacular 4th Q against the Giants). The game against Minnesota, I agree, was a brutal one. But everyone knows that the Vikings are the kings of Tuesday Night Football. That game was just screwy, and I think a mulligan can be given regarding the circumstances. No, you shouldn't lose to Joe Webb, at home, but everybody gets one.
The game against the Cowboys was completely irrelevant, as the Eagles were already locked into their #3 seed (and they still probably should have won, save a late TD by the Cowboys to grab the draftpick-screwing win).
That's not to say I'm 100% locked in on Philly here. Green Bay is a nightmare of a matchup for anyone, and (I think) one of the best 3 teams in the NFC. It just so happens that I think Philly is also one of the best 3 teams in the NFC (Atlanta being the other of the triumvirate). So this is a tough, tough game. But all the love for Green Bay seems like it's overlooking what the Eagles are capable of. Michael Vick (who has never lost in the first round of the playoffs, by the way) could hang up 280 yards passing, 90 yards rushing and 4 total TD's, leading to America once again fawning all over him and the Eagles' Super Bowl aspirations.
The Pick: Philadelphia (-2.5)
Enjoy WC weekend everyone. Pray for these picks if you care at all about O-Szem's future/education.
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