CSzem's Corner: Championship Weekend

(BOD - Jenn Sterger)

Well, here we go. My incredible run of total and complete mediocrity continued last week with yet another 2-2 finish. At 4-4 through the first two weeks, I’ve positioned myself nicely to not completely and totally lose my shirt in the playoffs, but any potential financial windfall looks unlikely.

Last week’s slate of games included a tremendous comeback (or perhaps even more tremendous collapse) in the Ravens/Steelers game, that somehow resulted in a non-cover for me. Also last week, we saw Aaron Rodgers officially entering himself into the “Best QB on the Planet” debate, with a virtuoso performance in the Georgia Dome.

Sunday’s games produced the blow-out I predicted in Seattle/Chicago (don’t let the final score fool you), and then just a brutal effort from the Pats (to take nothing away from the Jets) in their loss.

So now we’re down to 4. We’ve got 4 storied franchises vying for the title. 4 former first round draft picks playing QB (first time that’s ever happened), and 4 great defenses. These should both be fantastic games. There’s no reason to believe we won’t have two closely contested battles, with some possible late-game theatrics.

So, with all of that said – why am I not more excited?

I don’t have a good answer, but my general malaise towards this week’s pair of games continues to eat away at me. Most likely it’s because I have absolutely no rooting interest either for or against any of these teams. Truthfully, my feelings towards all of them are mostly neutral. So I’m having a hard time getting “jacked up”, since I don’t care who wins.

Well you know what kids? That’s why God invented gambling (I think it was on the 4th day…..and it was good.). Gambling was made for weekends when you wouldn’t otherwise care. Every year for the Super Bowl, I run a huge “props board” for all of our friends. Without fail, every year, Mrs. CSzem remarks to me after the game how much more she enjoyed it because she had thrown in $10 (of my money, no doubt) to bet on the game. This, inevitably, leads to about a 1 day grace period where she is understanding of why I gamble so much, before we get back to usual with her complaining that I’m frittering away our son’s college fund.

To the picks!!

The Game: Green Bay @ Chicago

The Line: Green Bay (-3.5)

Can’t remember the last time I saw something like this, where a #6 seed was going on the road to play against a #2 seed, who happens to be their arch rival, in the playoffs (first playoff matchup between these two teams in 70 years!)….and was LAYING points. Just goes to show how hot to trot the gambling public is for the Packers right now. Everyone has convinced themselves that they’ve “figured it out” (hell, I even made that argument last week), and they cannot be stopped.

Let’s flash back to Week 17 of the regular season. The Packers were playing for their lives. Win and they were in. Lose and they were out. Travelling to Soldier Field, to face a Bears team that had literally nothing to play for (were already locked in as the #2 seed), the Packers didn’t score for the first 43 minutes of the game. This juggernaut offense that has everyone falling all over themselves, didn’t score a TD in that game until the 4th quarter, and then barely squeaked out a 10-3 win.

Two weeks later and they’re the greatest offense in history, Aaron Rodgers’ bust is being prepared for Canton, and they’re laying 3.5 points in Chicago. You can guess where I’m going with this.

Bears should feel totally disrespected by this line. They should be laying 3 points in this game (I’m not saying I’d lay 3 points with them, but that should have been the line, if they were at all respected). Packers can absolutely win this game, but I’m expecting a dogfight with both defenses coming to play.

The Pick: Chicago (+3.5)

The Game: NY Jets @ Pittsburgh

The Line: Pittsburgh (-3.5)

See what I mean? How are these games any different? A hot #6 seed that just knocked off two stud QB’s in successive weeks, upsetting the #3 seed and the #1 seed. The game is a rematch of a game earlier in the year (as recent as December) where the road team/#6 seed came in and won a big game. That description literally applies to both games. Everything is completely true. So why are the Packers laying 3.5 while the Jets are getting 3.5?

Well, for one, I’m not disagreeing with this line. I think that it further underscores how incorrect the Bears/Packers line is. Any of these four teams winning these games would not surprise me.

So what does that mean? That means I’m going back to “old reliable”. The strategy that we talked about for earlier in the playoffs seems to strangely apply here. I’m taking the points. I’m not saying that I think the Jets are definitely going to win. But at least one of these underdogs will cover (the fact that I don’t know which one explains why I’m taking them both). Really, I see no reason why these couldn’t both be FG games that come down to the wire.

The Pick: NY Jets (+3.5)

The great thing about these picks is that when I started writing, I intended to pick Pittsburgh and Green Bay….so only the exact opposite of what I just picked. It just seems that everyone and their cousin is writing those two teams into the Super Bowl. I think one of them gets upset, and frankly, even if they both get by, one of the games will be within 3.5. I feel strangely good about these picks. And now I can enjoy the weekend!!