After a perfectly average showing in Wild Card Weekend of the NFL Playoffs (2-2), I’m back for more. The dream of an 11-0 run in the playoffs is dead. Actually it was dead about an hour into the first game when it was clear that all of the factors I highlighted about the Saints/Seahawks game – short week, tough stadium, Super Bowl Hangover – were going to be too much to overcome, and the Saints had no shot to cover the double-digit spread.
But hey, 2-2 isn’t terrible. Right there in the meaty part of the curve, not showing off, not falling behind.
Interestingly enough, I was KIND OF on the right track with how I was evaluating the games. As I mentioned, in the past, I used to just take all 4 home teams in Round 1 and know that I would go 3-1. Yes, I was (likely) killing my chances of winning all 4, but the downside of “trying to find the upset” happens when you’re wrong. All of a sudden, you go 2-2, because not only does your upset pick not happen, but you also lose the upset that actually DOES happen.
Which brings us back to last week. I liked all four road teams, I really did. But in my mind, there was no way that all four road teams would win and/or cover. So I assessed all the games and took a shot at which one I’d go “the other way” on. I landed on Philly because of how explosive they can be, and the fact that if Vick went off, I’d have felt stupid betting against him.
Well, it turns out, I was right on a couple counts: the road teams were great plays, but 4-0 was unattainable. One of them had to lose. So I took my shot at guessing which one it would be, and I guessed wrong, so I went 2-2. If I had gone with all 4, I would have gone 3-1 like I said was the goal.
On to this week’s picks (which will, of course, not incorporate any lessons I may have learned that would help me make better picks).
The Game: Baltimore @ Pittsburgh
The Line: Pittsburgh (-3.5)
This is the easiest game for me to pick this week, which sounds ridiculous since it might be the most evenly matched rivalry in the entire league. But that’s just it. These teams are separated by absolutely nothing as far as I can tell.
There are a bunch of stats out there to support just how close this rivalry actually is. Since the start of the 2003 season, these teams have played each other 15 times. The Steelers have won 8 times, the Ravens have won 7. Both teams have scored EXACTLY 275 points. 7 of those games have been decided by 3 points or less. That’s enough stats. Give me the points.
The Pick: Baltimore (+3.5)
The Game: Green Bay @ Atlanta
The Line: Atlanta (-2.5)
I am pretty much out of stats for the rest of these picks. Kind of blew my wad a tad early on that first one (now I’ve got this big mess on my hands….). This pick is more about “feel”, and it’s a tough one. As I said last week, I think these are two of the best three teams in the NFC (and they’re the only ones of that group left), so this is a major toss-up.
One thing that keeps getting beaten over everyone’s head is Matt Ryan’s incredible record at home. He is now 20-2 in the Georgia Dome for his career, which is obviously remarkable. One of those wins came in late November against this very same Packers team. That game was a very tightly contested contest that came down to the wire.
The problem with the Falcons is that they don’t pass “the eye test”. They’re boring. There are no great storylines here, or mega-stars (Ryan is their biggest star, but their best player is Roddy White a WR who somehow toils in relative anonymity, despite being arguably the best WR in football). There’s no Aaron Rodgers, or Clay Matthews, or Charles Woodson, to get people excited. The Packers look like a team that might be on a mission to the Super Bowl. All season, it’s seemed like they have the most talent in the NFC and are simply waiting to take control.
So one of two things is going to happen in this game:
1) They finally take control and assume the role as NFC favourite (even though they’d be going on the road for the NFC Championship game)
2) They’ll lose the game, fail to get “over the hump”, and everyone will wonder why
Despite injuries and coaching, I’m going with #1.
The Pick: Green Bay (+2.5)
The Game: Seattle @ Chicago
The Line: Chicago (-10)
Everyone has spent the entire week convincing themselves that the Seahawks now have a bit of a “swagger”, and “nothing to lose”, and are finally healthy, and look like a team that can do some damage. Everyone is also pointing out the fact that this game happened once earlier in the year, and (amazingly enough) Seattle actually went into Soldier Field and won.
What everyone is failing to remember is that they lost 9 FREAKING GAMES! Do you realize that the only way they can finish OVER .500 is by winning the Super Bowl (they’d finish 11-9)..? Even losing in the Super Bowl would leave them at 10-10, which is absurd. This is a team that went 2-6 on the road in the regular season. Yes, one of those two wins came against the Bears (the other came against an abominable Arizona team that would have been better off with Tewks as its starting QB), but who cares. They are awful, and we all seem to have collectively forgotten as we pick our jaws up from off the ground after watching Marshawn Lynch’s insane run from last week.
I actually think it’s going to be a positive thing that Chicago lost that game earlier in the year. They are really the only team in the league that has any feeling of needing “revenge” against Seattle (a few of the players have already made reference to the fact that they were hoping for a rematch), and there’s absolutely no way that Seattle is coming into Soldier Field and winning twice this year.
I’m aware that they could lose, and still cover, but as discussed last week, when they lose, they lose big.
The Pick: Chicago (-10)
The Game: NY Jets @ New England
The Line: New England (-9.5)
This line is insanely high for a playoff game matching up two very good teams, and division rivals. There is genuine dislike between these two. Jets CB Antonio Cromartie called Tom Brady an “asshole” this week, and Rex Ryan has spent a tonne of time talking about how much better Peyton Manning is than Brady.
Neither of those things seem like particularly good ideas from the Jets, when they’re matching up against a team that:
a) Beat them 45-3 on December 6th
b) Is on an 8 game winning streak (5 of which came against teams that qualified for the playoffs, so they’re not beating patsies)
c) Has scored an average of 37.4 points during said streak, never failing to score at least 31
d) Has won those 8 games by an AVERAGE of 21.8 points
I don’t need to waste any more time. I don’t care how “tough” the Pats opponent is, you cannot bet against them right now. They could be matched up with the ’85 Bears and I think they’d score 30+. Weather doesn’t bother them, defenses don’t bother them.
This pick could blow up, the line is too high for a divisional, hard-nosed, playoff matchup, but I’ll be damned if I’m betting against Tom Brady right now.
The Pick: New England (-9.5)
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